A future of “doom and gloom”? The 2024 Munich Security Conference
Between February 16th and 18th the 60th edition of the Munich Security Conference (MSC) took place at the Bayerischer Hof Hotel. The Munich Security Conference is one of the largest and most influential gatherings where international security policy is discussed and where political leaders from around the world exchange ideas and policies on the key issues that exist on the current world agenda. The Conference has included for the past 60 years a large array of security and world politics experts, key decision-makers, heads of state, ministers, leaders of prominent non-governmental organizations, public opinion leaders or members of the academia.
Similar to the 2003 Conference, when the key issue discussed was the US intention to start a war against Iraq, or to the 2007 Conference, when Russian President Vladimir Putin held a speech that foreshadowed the developments of Russian international political strategies, one and a half years prior to the Russian Invasion of Georgia, the 2024 edition of the Munich Security Conference had its important moments that will definitely define the future of global politics. The Conference took place on the backdrop of the ongoing war in Ukraine, started by the Russian Federation in 2022, and the first day of the Conference started with a piece of news that distressed a large part of the Western world, the announcement of the death of the Russian opposition leader, Alexei Navalny.
The general attitude regarding the geopolitical future of the world that appeared at the Conference was catalogued as anxious or by the phrase “doom and gloom”, a general feeling of uncertainty and pessimism surrounding the entire Munich forum. As we have seen in recent years, the world is developing towards a more confrontational reality, cooperation among states being consistently less common, or being replaced by friendshoring, the limiting of collaboration only with already existing, secure allies and partners. In order to encapsulate these developments, the 2024 MSC’s report emphasized the possibility of the creation of a “lose-lose” international system, where geopolitical tensions and the rivalry between states create an unstable and unsure world. One key data point that backs this conclusion can be drawn from the 2024 MSC Security Index, in which is stated that a large part of the population of G7 countries believe that their future will be less prosperous and secure in the following decade.
One of the main sources of anxiety when it comes to the future of the global political order and to the development of a stronger NATO Alliance is the possibility of a second term as U.S. President of Donald Trump. As we shall see in this article, the super electoral year of 2024 creates a lot of anxiety for all democratic countries, yet no other election is as influential as the United States Presidential Election from November 2024. The international community in general and the Western world in particular are anxious when it comes to a second term in office of Donald Trump due to his unpredictable nature and his disruptive rhetoric. This, especially when it comes to the NATO alliance, which he opposed multiple times during the campaign, one of the most important recent cases being his statement that he would not defend a NATO nation that does not meet the 2% GDP expense goal. On the other hand, there exists another possibility that might arise from a second Trump act. With the USA’s main foreign policy focus shifting towards the Asia-Pacific and especially Trump’s hawkish attitude towards the People’s Republic of China, we might see a demand of Donald Trump from Europe, not only to invest more of their GDP in defense, but also to align their Pacific foreign policy to the US’s and get more engaged in the region, in order to support American security concerns.
Europe ought to rethink and reinforce their defense capabilities in case of a new Trump term, these discussions have been taking place for quite some time in European security and foreign policy circles, the defense dependency of Europe on the USA being increasingly frowned upon by specialists and political leaders alike, both European and American. Securing a larger and stronger defense capacity includes a number of policy changes that must take place in order to assure that Europe can protect itself in the case of a subsequent Russian aggression. These changes include a shift in economic policy, and in industrialization, the European military industrial complex lacking at the moment the capacities of the American, Chinese or even the Russian military industrial bases. The main pressing issue regarding the European military industrial capacity being the production of NATO-standard 155 shells, which are the lifeline of the Ukrainian artillery and of the Ukrainian land forces.
Naturally, the second key leader that will define the security architecture of Europe and the World is Vladimir Putin. Without a shadow of a doubt, the European security agenda will be defined by the outcome of the War in Ukraine. One of Europe’s current tasks is to provide Ukraine with as much help as needed and as much it can afford, more so that the Aid Funds for the support in Ukraine are blocked in the United States Congress. Even if Donald Trump does not get elected for a second term in office, the European security structure has forever been changed by the invasion of Ukraine commanded by Vladimir Putin. Thus, the European Union must prepare for any possible outcome and apart from investments and the revival of the industrial capacity this also includes difficult political debates that it must engage in, in order to restructure the European security mechanisms. These debates include but are not limited to the creation of a Commissioner for Defense policy, the enlargement of interoperability among Member states militaries and the carrying out of European common military operations and exercises, meant to help strengthen the military capabilities of the EU. Moreover, one political discussion that exists in the policy circles of Western countries is the shift from a “unanimity vote” to a “qualified majority vote” system for all decisions of the EU, but especially when it comes to the security matters.
Following a working visit at the Bundestag, where I had the opportunity to meet people from multiple levels of the government, the opposition and the think-tank domain, I can attest that, the support for Ukraine remains, at least at the discoursive level, one of the most important foreign policy goals of the German political establishment. Second, the debates regarding a European Common Security and Defense Policy, the existence of a Defense Commissioner and the renouncing of the principle of unanimity voting in matters of European security are plentiful and will surely get a place on the European agenda following the European elections in June. The “Zeitenwende” (turning point) in German foreign policy announced by Chancellor Olaf Scholz two years ago is still as relevant today and it is transforming as we speak from a rushed political response to a war, into a lengthy commitment towards European security.
Finally, one of the constant critiques made to the Munich Security Conference is their lack of focus towards the developing world, or the so-called “Global South”, and their main focus on the foreign and security policy goals of the Western, developed world. In order to counteract this, the MSC tried to include more developing countries into the debates and the panel discussions, and also tackled a series of subjects specifically designed around collaboration between developed and developing countries.
Bibliography
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Bunde, Tobias, Sophie Eisentraut, and Leonard Schütte, eds. Rep. Munich Security Report 2024: Lose-Lose? Munich, Germany: Munich Security Conference, 2024. https://securityconference.org/assets/01_Bilder_Inhalte/03_Medien/02_Publikationen/2024/MSR_2024/MunichSecurityReport2024_Lose-lose.pdf .
Doucet, Lyse. “Munich Security Talks Marked by Global ‘Lose-Lose’ Anxiety.” BBC News, February 19, 2024. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68334715 .
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